From today’s Twitter meme celebrating the victory of applied mathematics over gut instincts, though that happens roughly 92.4% of the time:
And for posterity, mine:
To Nate’s credit, he said all along that he would get too much credit if the election went the way his probabilities said it was most likely and too much blame if they did not. He’ll “miss” one of these days, just as Phil Ivey occasionally loses a few hands of poker to an amateur. But in the long run, bet on Nate. The odds in his favor are pretty good.