The number of Americans mourning the death of Qasem Soleimani might be in the dozens. I’m related to some Iranian-Americans, and they’ve never been apologists for the post-1979 regime. (Let’s not get into the 1953-1979 regime that we installed in yet another failed act of nation-building.)
But the condescending crew on Twitter trying to explain to people that Iranian ex-pats are happy to see this guy meet a violent end is missing the point.
Will Soleimani’s assassination make things better or worse?
The answer is easy. No.
Consider North Korea for a minute. If Kim Jong-un was suddenly removed, would anyone in the USA other than Dennis Rodman (and perhaps Donald Trump, depending on his current mood) be upset? Of course not. Would his death, presuming it wasn’t natural causes, bring stability to the world? Absolutely not.
In North Korea, another Kim would immediately pop up. And in Iran, we’ll soon see a new general emboldened by nationalist passion that we helped reinvigorate by violating their sovereignty and, you know, killing people.
So what has changed in this post-Soleimani world?
- Forget the nuclear deal — which had been working. Now we may well see Iran ramp up again, inflaming tension with Israel. That’s not good.
- Once again, we see Trump acting with limited regard for the advice of people who’ve been through these things before.
- We’ve undercut Japan.
- We’ve undercut Britain.
- Iraq’s Parliament wants us out.
- Iran already had a protest movement. Now they have no room to operate.
- And while the U.S. Soccer’s decision to cancel a training camp in Qatar isn’t significant on its own, it shows how unstable we’ve made things.
And for what?